A brief note to the Yes on Prop 8 campaign

Item buried in page 6 (local news) for the Press, the major Christchurch daily:

Game of love sees gay MP score the man of his dreams

They met playing together in the country's first gay rugby team - the Krazy Knights - and today the happy couple will tie the knot in a public display of love.

"I said in my maiden speech - we're proof that it pays not to stereotype," Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson said.

The gay Labour politician and former No. 8 is swapping vows and rings with his sweetheart of 10 years, Alf Kaiwai - an ex-halfback - this afternoon in a civil union cermony at Old St Paul's church in Thorndon, Wellington.

This was last week. To the best of my knowledge, my straight engaged friends are still engaged, and my straight married friends are still married. Wellington has yet to sink beneath the waves, and we've been having gorgeous weather recently. This only got recorded because it was an MP and because of the rugby angle.

If you voted Yes on Prop 8, or you have similiar views - grow up. And join the rest of the civilised world.

Battlestar Galactica speculation

Warning - may be spoilers, may be complete codswallop.

I came up with this as a throwaway on Pandagon, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

The major remaining mystery of Battlestar Galactica as we head into the final season is - who is the fifth Cylon - the one missing between Lee Adama and Tigh in this photo:



Some clues already given:

- It's been noted that "The fifth Cylon will be "organic and satisfying. It won't be some day player from Season 1." says SciFi Channel VP Mark Stern.[5] Stern describes it as "delicious" and "one of those things that are right under your nose and you don't expect it -- but it makes total sense." He says, "it doesn't feel arbitrary, It feels like it could have been planned all along."[6]"

- "The First Hybrid says this about the final Cylon:
"The fifth is still is in shadow, drawn toward the light, hungering for redemption, that will only come in the howl of terrible suffering." (Razor)"

- "D'Anna Biers's vision of the Final Five led her to speak of "the one who programmed us." (Rapture)"

My guess is that the fifth Cylon is, in fact, the Battlestar Galactica itself. I'd rate it at about 30-40% probable - it seems silly on first glance, but the more I look at it, the more it seems possible, and both a twist and an organic part of the whole series.

Consider:
- The purpose of the final Five is to find Earth. If Galactica is pulling their strings, this would explain the musical episode. And what else is more likely to be there if the fleet succeeds?
- The Galactica, using the other four and perhaps Baltar's Number Six as unwitting catspaws, has been manipulating the humans and also manipulating the Cylons, without the Seven being generally aware of what has been happening. The Cylon pursuit of the Fleet has been a spur towards the goal of finding Earth.
- There is no reason why a Cylon should look human - at all.
- The key argument against this theory is that it is a military ship, presumably with every inch maintained on a regular basis. How are you going to hide a Cylon brain on board? This makes sense until you consider that both the ship's chief petty officer and its second in command may have been manipulated - the two people most able to conceal the truth.
- The directors have said that they were leaving clues, and then they came out with the "Last Supper" picture. This conspiciously had an empty place. But, then again, perhaps they're just enamoured with their own cleverness enough to leave the clue in plain sight - look closer and it is not an empty place at all. The Fifth Cylon is right there...

Okay, so it seems unlikely. But, considering it, it is a narratively brilliant stroke, and considerably more satisfying than having Zarek or anyone else turn out to be the candidate. I'd wager on it if anyone would give me two to one odds.

More game-playing foolishness

Consider this bit of news:

President-elect Barack Obama is resurrecting an idea that fell short of enactment twice in 2008: allowing companies a speedier recovery of their current losses through refunds of taxes they paid on earnings in previous years.

The extension of net operating loss carryback from two years to five, which is favored by Republicans, would provide instant refunds to some of the firms that have been hit hardest by the recession, including large portions of the financial services and real estate industries.

Economically, this doesn't appear to be very clever for two reasons.

Firstly, it fails as an economic stimulus. The research is best illustrated by this, from Firedoglake.



If you are going to try to stimulate the economy, reducing corporate taxes is not the best way to do it.

Firedoglake also points out one means of gameplaying via this provision. Another immediately springs to my mind, and this is the encouragement of exaggerated expenses and valuing losses associated with a specific corporate identity as, again, a means of gaming the system. A company that makes a loss might be considered worth acquiring precisely because that past loss might be offset, post acquisition, against a tax burden on other profits. or you might run global expenses through an American subsidiary precisely to incur a loss.

I'm almost economically illiterate. If I can see the potential for corporate gameplaying involved with this, the smart money must be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect.

And the very last thing the American corporate and financial structure needs now is yet another reason for people to distrust it.

On belief and blatant untruths...

From the Daily Telegraph:

Vicar went to hospital with potato stuck in bottom

A vicar attended hospital with a potato stuck up his bottom - and claimed it got there after he fell on to the vegetable while naked.

The clergyman, in his 50s, told nurses he had been hanging curtains when he fell backwards on to his kitchen table.

He happened to be nude at the time of the mishap, said the vicar, who insisted he had not been playing a sex game.

I believe him. Why, I remember this one time when I just happened to be playing a purely innocent game of naked leapfrog with a high school friend of mine back at her place. I happened to slip, and as we were trying to entangle ourselves, purely innocently. mind, her parents walked in. Oh, the unjustness of the accusations that flew...

A thought to warm the cockles

...of this evil old heart of mine.

For the rest of his life, the entire rest of his life, lo, even when he is eighty or ninety and sitting in a wheelchair, George W Bush is going to have people throwing shoes at him. Not every day, but often enough that he's going to be worried about it every time he goes out in public. You can now threaten him just by slipping off your shoes.

Not nearly as good as the Hague, but still, better than nothing.

Three predictions on the Warren Affair

I'll make three predictions regarding Obama selecting Rick Warren to give the invocation at his inauguration, assuming he doesn't bow to pressure and replace Warren. This will allow me a "told you so" should they later come true:

i, On Jan 21, nobody is going to care much, if any, about what Warren said. The only interesting thing from his speech will be in comparisons with Lowery, with the latter cleaning Warren's clock.

ii, At some stage within his first term, Obama is going to deliver at least one major step forward for gay rights - whether this be some recognition of civil unions at the federal level, protection against discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation, or the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Go read his stance on gay rights.

iii, The people currently screaming "betrayal" and having hissy fits at Obama having a wider perspective than their own interests, important though those interests are, are going to celebrate that achievement, but not reconsider or apologise for their hyperbole on this issue. They're going to keep real quiet about what they've said about Obama over this affair, and never ever admit they were wrong.

Obama has been elected a President of a country of nearly 300 million. He owes the gays, both practically and morally, but that doesn't mean he has an obligation to let them dictate every action. The assumption by any interest group that they can get everything their way is simply goddamned childish - this whole affair reminds me of nothing more than the sort of over the top rubbish you see the NRA pumping out. If a group's sense of self identity can't cope with the President trying to make an ally out of someone useful to him who is hostile to them, even repugnant, then they better turn off the radio and stop reading the newspapers for the next four years, because Obama is going to have to do worse if the US has any chance of pulling out of the crash the Republicans have left it in. Iran springs to mind.

The more I see elsewhere, the more I have to admire the NZ Green Party for their clear-headed approach towards their own interests and coalition politics. The Dirty Hippies have turned out to be role-models for combining idealism with practical, honourable politics, and as a result have had the most influence of any minor party on NZ policy.

Molly Ivins once commented that you have to dance with them that brung you. Obama has stated that the gays are on his dance card, and when the music starts playing on Jan 21st, we can judge whether he keeps up to his promises. He has to dance with his various prom partners; I don't believe he ever promised any of them oral sex in the parking lot before the prom started.

UPDATE: John Cole, as so often happens, says it succinctly.

Unifying Iraq

News story from Iraq regarding the journalist who threw his shoes at Bush:

In Iraq, the traditional community is deeply rooted in tribal relationships. Whether Sunni or Shi’i (and some tribes contain members of both sects), in Iraqi tradition if a member of a tribe takes an action or is in trouble, members of his tribe will represent him and will be responsible for supporting him. But in Muntather’s case, tribal leaders from throughout Iraq, from the North to South and from East to West, have claimed him as their son. They have said that they want him released safe and sound, offering to pay whatever fine the government will set for him.

Muntather’s actions have, for these days, united Sunnis, Shiites, and Christians. It united Iraqis as Iraqis. And it only took a few seconds. Sunni and Shiite tribal leaders have publicly asked that Muntather not be referred to using his tribal affiliation (Muntather al-Zaidi), because they believe his tribal affiliation now encompasses all the tribes of Iraq: They’ve asked for him to be referred to as “Muntather Al-Iraqi” (Muntather the Iraqi). At the same time, the tribal leaders have said that they hope it is now clear that they have only one enemy — the occupation of Iraq.

On reading the US blogs, I don't know whether the right is deliberately ignoring or actually does not realise just how hated Bush (and by extension America) has become because of this war and occupation.

Good luck to Muntather Al-Iraqi. I hope he has the opportunity to use his fifteen minutes to help keep his country together and his countrymen and women thinking of themselves as a united group, even if just against an alien invader.